For Gila monsters living in the increasingly hot Mojave Desert, escaping the heat isn’t as simple as finding a cooler spot. While climate change may create more favorable environments in some areas, new research published in the March issue of Ecology and Evolution suggests that these unique lizards could be stranded in regions becoming too hot to handle.

Gila monsters (Heloderma suspectum) are iconic desert dwellers, known for their stocky bodies and striking black and orange-pink patterns. They’re also among the rare venomous lizards in the world, with venom compounds that have played a key role in developing medications for diabetes, due to their similarity to human digestive hormones.

Despite their scientific importance, Gila monsters remain elusive in the wild, especially in the Mojave. They spend much of their time hidden and are not well-studied in this part of their range. Conservation biologist Steve Hromada, now with the Fresno Chaffee Zoo in California, led a study to examine how climate change could affect their future distribution.

Beginning five years ago, while still at the University of Nevada, Reno, Hromada and his team gathered Gila monster sightings from across Nevada, Utah, California, and Arizona. By comparing these records with climate and landscape characteristics, they created a map of current suitable habitats in the Mojave. Then, using climate models, they projected how those habitats might shift over the next several decades.

Under lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the researchers found minimal change in suitable habitat. But if emissions remain high, more than one-third of the lizards' current suitable territory could disappear by 2082, especially in lower elevation areas where rising temperatures could make survival increasingly difficult.

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Although Gila monsters live in hot desert environments, they rely on cooler microclimates to stay healthy. According to ecophysiologist Kris Wild of the University of Melbourne, who was not involved in the study, these lizards regulate their body temperature by retreating into burrows or becoming active at night. As the climate warms, some mountain regions could become more livable for them. But reaching those areas poses a major challenge.

To assess whether Gila monsters could move to these new habitats, the researchers incorporated movement data from 62 individuals tracked via radio transmitters. Their analysis showed that the lizards have difficulty crossing rugged terrain and areas with sparse vegetation. Most importantly, Gila monsters tend to remain close to their home ranges and rarely venture far—making large-scale relocation unlikely.

“The distances to new suitable habitats are just too great,” Hromada explains. “Even if those areas become ideal, it’s not likely Gila monsters will be able to get there and establish new populations.”

Wild adds that as habitat patches shrink and become increasingly isolated, preserving current strongholds will be essential. “These areas may become critical for the species' survival as the climate continues to change,” he says.